Thursday 02-13-2014 Mortgage Market Daily Report

Ongoing weaker than expected economic data are giving Bonds a boost this morning.
Weekly Jobless Claims were higher than expected, while Retail Sales were lower than expectations.
Economic data has been soft for the past several weeks following back to back poor Jobs Reports for December and January. Should this trend continue, the Fed's hands may be forced to do more...like taper the taper.

Retail Sales in January fell -0.4% MoM following the prior month’s growth of +0.2%. Autos tugged down sharply on January sales posting a loss of -2.1% vs. -1.8% prior while gas station sales contributed gains of +1.6% vs. +1.5% prior. Initial jobless claims were up 8K in the February 8 week to a higher-than-expected 339K with continuing claims falling 11K to 2953K vs. 2964K prior. Treasuries are rallying off the disappointing data with 5-Year yields down -5 bps and 2s10s both down -2 bps.

Holding on by a thread; the bond and mortgage markets are better this morning after selling yesterday took the 10 yr note to critical technical levels at 2.76% where the 20, 40 and 100 day averages reside presently. Any additional selling today would have dealt a technical blow that would have changed the outlook, this morning though with weaker retail sales the 10 is holding, at 9:00 at 2.74%.

January retail sales was expected to be -0.1%, ex auto sales up 0.1%; as reported sales were -0.4% and ex auto sales unchanged from Dec. On top of that Dec sales were revised frm +0.2% originally reported to -0.1%. We noted yesterday that whatever was reported on sales in January would be seen in the context of very cold and snowy weather. January was the coldest in three years, with snowfall almost four times above normal, according to weather-data provider Planalytics Inc. That followed the coldest December since 2009 with snowfall 21% above normal. The stock market this morning isn’t giving much emphasis to the weather that in our view has had a very negative impact on the economy since the middle of Dec; the key indexes prior to the 9:30 open had the DJIA down 80 points.

Weekly jobless claims were also softer than forecasts; up 8K to 339K against consensus of generally unchanged. The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, increased to 336,750 from 333,250 the week before. Claims have been choppy the last month, the same reason, weather; is distorting the underlying true measurement of where the economy is now. Generally we don’t give much credence to weather conditions that are blamed for reports that deviate frm estimates and forecasts, but this time IS different. It may not mean much to those that are only reading and hearing about the extreme winter weather but those who are living it know intuitively that consumers are staying away from shopping and would-be employers are not seeing the immediate need to hire. Yesterday the South was hit again, this morning NY is getting slammed. Weather is, and has distorted, the real underlying economic condition. By that we don’t necessarily mean without weather issues the data would be better, what we are saying is that no one should make much out of the economic measurements one way or the other.

I am recommending to carefully float as Mortgage Bonds are attempting to trade back above support at a key technical level. If anything changes, I will get back to you. 

Wednesday 02-12-2014 Mortgage Market Daily Report

Mortgage Bonds continue to drift lower with prices opening or “gapping” lower than yesterday’s worst levels…not a good technical signal. However, prices are now resting on a strong layer of support. 

In mortgage news, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that applications to purchase homes as well as to refinance, along with total home loan application volume, fell in the latest week. The decline came despite lower rates in the past month.

 Today we have MBA Mortgage applications, down -2.0% vs. +0.4% prior, for the week of February 7th. Purchases were down -5.0% vs. -3.8% prior (-13% YoY) and refinancing slipped -0.2% vs. +2.9% prior (-60.8% YoY). The average rate for a 30-Year conforming loan fell 2 bps to 4.45%. In yesterday’s testimony Yellen stressed the importance of restoring the labor markets and moving towards the Fed’s targeted employment level. The curve has bear steepened with 2s10s up 2 bps.

With Mortgage Bonds resting on support, I am recommending to carefully float. If anything changes, I will get back to you.

Tuesday 02-11-2014 Mortgage Market Daily Report

Rising Stock prices coupled with added Treasury supply are pushing Mortgage Bond prices lower today.

On Capitol Hill, new Fed Chair Janet Yellen has stated that the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps if labor market conditions and inflation continue to improve.

Wholesale inventories rose +0.5% in November offset by a 1% rise in sales. The stock to sales ratio fell to 1.17 from the prior three month’s readings of 1.18. December’s inventories are expected to come in flat with sales falling to +0.7%. Yellen’s first semi-annual monetary policy testimony is today at 7:00 AM PST. The curve has bear steepened with 2s10s up 3 bps.

Let me emphasize that I expect a great deal of continuity in the (Fed's) approach to monetary policy.

I will continue to recommend a locking stance in the short term, which is measured in a few days to a few weeks. If anything changes. I will get back to you.

Monday 02-10-2014 Mortgage Market Daily Report

Mortgage Bonds continue to trade in a sideways pattern beneath a tough ceiling of overhead resistance, marked by the price highs seen back in mid-November.

There are no economic reports due for release today and the rest of the week’s calendar is on the light side. However, some volatility could be provided by this week’s added supply of Treasury auctions in the form of 3 and 10-Year Notes along with 30-Year Bonds.

We have a light calendar this week with the spotlight on retail sales, imports and consumer confidence. Janet Yellen gives her first semi-annual monetary policy testimony tomorrow, before House Financial Services Committee, in Washington. While we expect Yellen’s ideals to be quite similar to her predecessor’s, this will be a good opportunity to see the new Fed chairwoman’s stance on policy and the current economic condition. Little change to the yield curve with MBS tightening 1-2 ticks.

I am continuing to recommend a locking stance until such time that I can clearly see Mortgage Bonds break above those key technical overhead levels. If anything changes, I will get back to you.

Have a great week!

Friday 02-07-2014 Mortgage Market Daily Report

Today’s January Jobs Report was lackluster at best showing that employers added just 113K jobs, below the 175K expected. The weak data did manage to push Mortgage Bond prices higher, but the gains are modest.
Mortgage Bond prices continue to battle key overhead resistance levels and until they can break above that ceiling, I will continue to recommend a locking stance.
10-Year note yields fell for the first time in four days following today’s rather disappointing payroll data (-4 bps). Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts by -67K coming in at +113K vs. +74K prior; expectations were for a +180K boost. Private payrolls advanced +142K vs. +89K in December. We saw the labor force rebound +523K vs. -347K prior and the unemployment rate slipped to 6.6% from 6.7% in December. Government employment fell -29K, the biggest in a single month since October 2012. Wage growth met expectations of +0.2% after posting flat in December. Overall, the employment report points to a soft first quarter and, while it seems clear that this month’s jobs report missed the mark, there is some uncertainty over how much weather weighed on job growth. The curve has bull flattened with MBS tightening 3-4 ticks.
If anything changes, I will get back to you. Have a great weekend! 


Best Los Angeles Mortgage Broker and Home Loan Lender

Real Estate and Mortgage Market Update for Monday 01-07-2013

The bond and mortgage markets started a little better this morning; both markets technically overdone, bonds oversold, stocks overbought. That said, neither trend shows any evidence of reversing, just some retracements. There are no economic releases today, and not much for the week. Treasury will auction $66B of notes and bonds beginning tomorrow with $32B of 3 yr notes, Wed. $21B of 10s, Thurs. $13B of 30s.

Friday’s Dec employment report was OK but not much indication that employment will increase much in the months ahead. The tepid data has taken some of the fear out of the bond market that the Fed will end its QE easing’s anytime soon. Last week’s FOMC minutes shook traders and investors, there was a lot of discussion about when the Fed should start to withdraw. Until those minutes were released there had been little concern in markets that the Fed was increasingly debating its eventual withdrawal.

Last week’s sharp spike higher in interest rates took markets by surprise,sending the 10 yr note yield up 20 basis points and MBSs about 10 bps increase. This week we believe rate markets will recover a little; the 10 hit 1.97% at one point Friday before closing at 1.90%. 2.00% should hold the increase; there is still the debt ceiling, entitlements, and spending cuts that will keep markets edgy. The recent strong rally in the stock market is also a little overdone at this time. We think the key indexes will back off some but as with the bond market, we don’t expect a trend change.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened -55, NASDAQ -12, S%P -4. The 10 yr note unchanged at 1.90%. 30 yr MBSs -2 bp.

Most of the momentum in stocks and bonds last week came from the FOMC minutes. The next FOMC meeting isn’t until Jan 30^th, in the meantime Fed officials are likely to attempt softening the Dec minutes. On Saturday Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said that communication of policy aims plays a “big role” in supporting the economy now that the central bank’s benchmark interest rate is close to zero. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said the same day that the central bank should take the steps necessary to ensure inflation stays near its goal of 2%.  Even after the huge increases last week we continue to believe that rates won’t increase much more in the short term. Consumers however should not be expecting interest rates will decline much, and should be encouraged to take advantage of price improvements now.

Today kicks off earnings season for Q4; so far today the equity market is weaker ahead of the rash of earnings. At 4:00, as always, Alcoa starts the three week period of earnings after the markets close tomorrow.

Real Estate and Mortgage Market Update Friday 10-12-2012 Daily Market Report

This morning we read;

Sept PPI jumped more than expected , +1.1% with forecasts of +0.8%. The core rate (ex food and energy) was better at unchanged against estimates of +0.2%. Theincrease in the PPI largely due to fuel costs increasing in Sept. Inflation gets a lot of ink these days with the Fed printing money at light speed but there isn’t any evidence on increases in the core rate which is where the focus is. Facing a global economic slowdown, businesses may have difficulty passing higher energy costs onto customers, keeping a lid on prices. In addition, weak demand from abroad and in the U.S. will probably prevent the cost of raw materials from flaring, limiting inflation pressures and allowing the Federal Reserve to focus on jump-starting employment growth. The core index increased 2.3% in the year ended in September, the smallest 12-month advance since June of last year. Core prices were held in check by a 0.7% drop in the cost of communications gear, the biggest decrease in more than eight years. Prices for computers and related equipment dropped 1.5%, helping to offset a 0.3% gain in light motor trucks according to the Labor Dept.

Prior to 8:30 PPI data the 10 yr note rate was up 3 bp from yesterday’s close.After PPI the 10 got a bounce back to unchanged as more confirmation that inflation is still not on the radar. Inflation fears will stay even though there isn’t any evidence yet that it is increasing. With long term interest rates at these low rates, traders and investors will not ignore the possibility. Investors still willing to buy these low yields based on a model created by the Fed; the 10-year term premium, that includes expectations for interest rates, growth and inflation, was negative 0.89%. A negative reading indicates investors are willing to accept yields below what’s considered fair value. The average for the past 10 years is +0.44%. The all-time low was negative 1.02% on July 24.

After four days in a row of declining stock indexes, this morning the market is looking a little better prior to the 9:30 open. Recent activity in the equity market has been discouraging; the indexes have tried to improve everyday recently only to fall apart in the late afternoon. Yesterday the DJIA held a 95 point gain in the morning but closed -18; the broader S&P index ended unchanged.

In Europe this morning reports that August industrial production increased 0.6% frm July (July also was +0.6% frm June). The better report however didn’t pass through to Europe’s key stock markets; all weaker today.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened +15, NASDAQ and S&P -1. The 10 yr note at 9:30 1.66% -1 bp; 30 yr MBS +2 bp.

9:55 brought the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index was generally expected unchanged at 78.3; as reported the index jumped to 83.1, a huge increase. The reaction sent the 10 yr note up 1 bp and fueled stock indexes higher. The highest level since before the recession began five years ago, raising the odds that retailers will see sales improve. The increase attributed to rising stock and property values along with falling joblessness.